The Loudenia Crier

Writing from London, international attorney Joshua Zive weighs in on the pending Turkey quid-pro-quo bill:

I think there are significant uncertainties associated with the bill that would make me hesitant to endorse it:

1) While international quid pros are not unusual, it is unusual to see them made explicitly, and I would be concerned about Loudenia being perceived as putting their EU-related votes up for sale. Making the deal explicit might drive other EU members to oppose Turkish inclusion, even if they would have otherwise been supportive–as a form of backlash against Loudenia trading their vote away. At a minimum, this could undermine Loudenia’s leverage in the EU because they will be seen as willing to trade their EU votes away.

2) It is not clear to me that obtaining Turkish troop support would help Loudenia. First, there are the practical issues associated with drawing this many additional Turkish forces into Afghanistan. Given Turkey’s historical, geographic and cultural interactions with the middle east, one can suspect that their troops will be received differently than Loudenian forces. Furthermore, it is unlikely that any successes of the Turkish forces will benefit Loudenia in terms of international perception–as other actors will likely view Loudenia as handing off their obligations to other countries.

3) How will this work practically? Will the Turkish troops be under Loudenian control? Will they follow Loudenian strategy or will they pursue Turkish ends? How will the cost burdens of the troops be shared, if at all?

These are my initial reactions.

Josh